Here are five general guidelines to betting on Super Bowl props successfully:
1 Focus on Props That Align With Your Goals. If your goal is to build your bankroll, then you’ll want to invest with discipline and focus on the props with the most expected value For you, the Super Bowl is just another game, except there are more props to sort through You are focused less on prop type and more on prop valuation. But if your goal is to have fun, then you’ll probably want to invest a small amount in lots of longshots across a variety of bets For instance … If you think Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein is going to boot at least a few long, clutch field goals in a close, low-scoring game, then you could bet on him to win the Super Bowl MVP award at +8000 If you think the color of the liquid poured on the game-winning coach might be purple, you can bet that at +1000 If you think Patriots running back Sony Michel could have a big game, you can bet on him at +194 odds to get at least 120 yards rushing If you think it’s likely that Christina Aguilera will sing on “Moves Like Jagger” with Maroon 5, then you can bet +225 that she’ll make an appearance during the halftime show With lots of bets, you’ll be invested in the entire spectacle, and if a few of the longshots hit then you could end the evening with a nice profit
- Don’t Overextend Your Bankroll. It’s easy to think of this one game as an entire weekend of football, and it’s tempting to bet larger sums than you normally would because the Super Bowl is your last opportunity for months to bet on the sport, but keep in mind that this is just one game Whatever percentage of your bankroll you’d be comfortable investing on props for one game during the regular season is probably the percentage you should use for the Super Bowl Plus maybe a little more. Because it’s the Super Bowl and because there are more props available But don’t overextend yourself on Super Bowl props. It’s just one game. Anything can happen Get Your Super Bowl 53 Prop Up in a Las Vegas SportsbookRead now
- Be Aware of Correlation During the regular season, you can play lots of player props throughout a typical week, because you’re investing across 13-16 games Most of your props will be uncorrelated. If you’re on the wrong side of one of them, that doesn’t mean you’ll be wrong on the others But, again, the Super Bowl is just one game. So many of the player, team and game props are correlated, even if they don’t seem correlated Let’s say that you bet the over on a whole bunch of Pats passing and receiving player props because you think that quarterback Tom Brady is going to have a massive performance You might be right, but you also might be wrong, and if Brady has a bad game, the under will hit on not only many of his props but also on those for his receivers I’m not saying that you shouldn’t invest in player props because of correlation concerns I’m saying that you should be aware of correlation and either maneuver around it or leverage it in a way that aligns with your goals Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady. If you’re trying to build your bankroll, you’ll be cautious when it comes to correlation You’ll look to diversify your action across all different types of props that offer an edge, especially the exotic props that have nothing to do with the action on the field If you’re looking to have some fun with the props, maybe you’ll actually want to make correlated bets so that you can have a bigger payoff if you’re right about how the game will unfold.
- Shop Around at Various Sportsbooks. Even if you’re betting on props just for fun, you still want to get the best line possible. Why limit your winning upside by betting a prop at +130 on one book when it’s +150 elsewhere? You can use the FantasyLabs Props Tool to help you find the books that offer the most value on player props In case you don’t know, our Props Tool is power by the projections created by Sean Koerner, the Director of Predictive Analytics for The Action Network He’s been one of the best creator of projections in the industry for the past half decade In the Props Tool, we grade each prop on a 1-10 scale. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of at least eight have a 57 9% win rate. With Koerner’s projections and the FantasyLabs Props Tool, you’ve got a good chance to make sharp bets at market-best odds.
- Think Probabilistically & Pay Attention to Juice. Think about every prop in terms of probability Once you have a sense of how likely something is to occur, you can compare those odds to the implied odds of the prop To discover the implied probability of a prop is simple. For negative odds, remove the minus sign and then divide the number by itself plus 100 in the denominator Example: -149 –> 149/(149+100) –> 149/249 –> 59.8% For positive odds, divide 100 by the number plus 100 in the denominator Example: +114 –> 100/(114+100) –> 100/224 –> 44.6% At one book, Tom Brady has a passing yardage prop of 301 5, with -149 odds for the over and +114 for the under. To bet the over, you should think that Brady will have more than 301 5 yards more than 59.8% of the time. To bet the under, you should think that he will have fewer than 301 5 yards more than 44.6% of the time. If you think a prop has implied odds that are too low, you can use The Action Network Expected Value Calculator to see how beneficial the bet is The EV Calculator can help you prioritize the bets to make if you have a number of props you’re choosing between In the Brady passing yardage example, you’ll notice that 59.8% and 44.6% don’t add up to 100% Those percentage points above 100% — that’s where the books make their money.